How to brace for impact
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By Ezra Levin, Indivisible Co-Founder and Co-Executive Director
Here’s my final reminder: We’re here to deliver Democrats the White House and Congress so that we can codify reproductive freedom and pass democracy reform. That’s the plan, and we’re almost there! In these newsletters I try to interpret the news of the day, brag about what we’re accomplishing together, and engage in a real discussion with Indivisibles doing work on the ground to save our democracy.
If I had more time, I would have written a shorter letter. But I didn’t, so I’ll kick off with a summary in case you’re short on time too:
The News: Brace for impact. There’s a lot of news, but not a lot of new information. Here’s how I deal with the resulting anxiety: trying to impact the election while we can, and planning for all major possible post-election scenarios. Indivisible has been doing the first loudly and the second quietly for months. If you’re the type of person who likes to plan and likes knowing there’s a plan, read on for the top lines of those plans for a contested election scenario, a Dem sweep, a Harris win/split Congress, and a Trump win.
The Brag: We’re firing on all cylinders. This is short and sweet: this Indivisible movement of ours is kicking ass, and making headlines doing it. I’m linking to stories about Indivisible activists’ power in the last week from TIME Magazine, Rolling Stone, the Associated Press, and Politico. We all do this for the impact, not the recognition — but when you’re having this much impact, the recognition follows. Bravo.
The Discussion: Lots of live chats. This is going to be a particularly chaotic week or two, and I want to stay in close touch with Indivisibles throughout it. So I’m planning two live briefings/discussions this week:
- Pre-election coffee chat tomorrow (11/4) at 3pm ET/12pm PT
- Post-election touch base this Wednesday (11/6) at 8:30pm ET/5:30 pm PT
My goal is simply to offer space for Q&A in an attempt to stay tight and coordinated as a movement throughout this period.
The News: Brace for impact
Here’s what I honestly believe: We’re going to win. I know the polls are chaotic, but based on every input I have — the Indivisible groups in the field, the anecdotes from the doors, the quality of the national and state campaigns, the dominant policy issues at play, the volunteer energy, and the voter enthusiasm — I believe we will win this presidential election. I’m optimistic about the House too. And the Senate is a jump ball.
But belief isn’t enough. Nobody knows. There will be plenty of “news” over the next 48 hours, but none of it will provide significant insight into the question we all want the answer to — who’s gonna win?
Given the stakes of this election, the rollercoaster of intense but information-less news can cause a lot of anxiety. There are two ways I deal with the uncertainty and brace for impact:
- Try to impact the results before Tuesday night. While I can’t know who will win, I do know I’ll want to feel like I did everything possible — and doing everything possible is in my control. If you’re reading this, you already know it’s important to vote, and that voting isn’t enough. If you live in a battleground state or district you can talk to 10 neighbors. If you don’t, you can share this newsletter with someone who does, and you can join a phonebank. Volunteer. That’s what’s in your power to do to influence the outcome with 2 days left to go.
- Prepare for multiple post-election scenarios. We can’t know the future, but we do know the range of possible futures. And Indivisible has been quietly planning for four scenarios for the last several months. While we have been avoiding distracting folks who are focused on building towards as big a win as possible, we have been engaged in a deep planning process so that we do not find ourselves surprised and unprepared for the most likely outcomes this week. The four scenarios include: a contested election scenario, and then three post-election scenarios — Dem trifecta, Harris win/split or GOP Congress, and Trump win.
If planning ahead gives you peace of mind (it does for me), read the rest of this section. But if you’d rather just focus on the next 48 hours and cross these bridges when we get there, that’s reasonable and healthy and probably the best use of your time — so skip to The Brag below.
Contested election: If (when) Kamala Harris wins, we know that Donald Trump will not accept the results. He has spent years refusing to accept the 2020 results and he and Vance have repeatedly refused to say they will accept the 2024 results if (when) they lose. In recent weeks, Trump has ramped up baseless accusations of fraud. Trump is not running a GOTV operation of substance — instead his team has been laying the groundwork to challenge the result in battleground states.
To prepare for this predictable chaos, Indivisible has been working with a national coalition of like-minded pro-democracy groups. We’ve planned in this coalition for each stage of the effort to ensure every vote is counted; we’ve prepared internally at Indivisible; and we’ve briefed members of Congress on the threat and the plan to combat it. Without releasing the full plans, here’s what I’ll say: As a broad pro-democracy community, we are better prepared now for this outcome than in 2020 when many people simply assumed there would be a peaceful transfer of power.
I won’t distract now with a deeper dive into the plans while there is still time left to ensure we win by a mile. But if you want to discuss this further, come to our coffee chat tomorrow, and know that we will bring the Indivisible movement together after the election to touch base and brief on next steps as well (see The Discussion below).
Three post-elections scenarios. Eventually the dust will settle and we will have a President-Elect. We will then find ourselves in one of three scenarios, each of which Indivisible has prepared a full strategic plan for ahead of election day.
- Democratic trifecta: Harris wins and we take the House and hold the Senate. In this scenario, not only have we defeated Trump and MAGA, we have the opportunity to codify reproductive freedom and pass substantial democracy reform. This is the world we want.
- Harris wins without Congress. Harris wins, but we fail to hold onto the Senate or take back the House. This is a reasonably likely scenario, and we should be prepared for a Republican congress focused on destroying the Harris presidency and sabotaging our democracy, as well as state-level fights.
- Trump wins. Whether Republicans take congress or not in this scenario, this is a disaster for democracy, our freedoms, and our planet. But importantly: It will mean that democracy is in peril — it will not mean that democracy is over. It will be a new stage in the fight, one where we’ll regroup, organize to hold off harm, and build the power to protect our democracy.
I desperately want to publish that first guide, or the second as a fallback. I have written and I would like you to read the words “President-Elect Kamala Harris.” But while we are working toward and hoping for the best, we are also prepared for the worst. Because the fight for American democracy isn’t over if we win, and the fight for American democracy isn’t over if we lose. As long as there are more pro-democracy Americans than anti-democracy MAGAs, our work for our families, our communities, and our country continues.
The Brag: Read all about us in Rolling Stone or TIME or the AP or Politico or…
This movement is so damn inspiring. We are 8 years into this mess, and yet when I meet with groups on the ground in Arizona or Michigan or Georgia or Texas or Pennsylvania or any battleground state, the focus is so practical. We’re not caught up in the latest media kerfuffle or debating the last poll. We’re focused on what we can actually do to help our communities, build power, and influence world events. “Do something,” Michelle Obama exhorted — well, we’ve been doing something for the better part of a decade to defeat MAGA and save our democracy.
And it’s nice to see the public take notice. All this is just a sample, and just from the last week or so:
Rolling Stone: This Twist on Door-Knocking Could Help Harris Defeat Trump: Just look at the subtitle: “Indivisible is recruiting a swing-state army of progressives to turn out their neighbors to vote for Kamala Harris and down-ballot.”
Politico: Dems See Signs for Optimism in Gender Gap in Early Vote. Quotes Leah bragging about Indivisibles in Michigan are doing getting out the vote door to door.
TIME: Democrats Bank on Ground Game Advantage in Pennsylvania. Covers Indivisible’s weekly Wednesday Women for Harris calls and action groups, and the inimitable Deb Paul from Indivisible Mass Coalition.
AP: Those Early Zoom Meetings Got People Fired Up for Harris. Now They’re Trying to Get Them to Vote. Quotes Leah talking about how we took the largest zoom in history and funneled that energy into productive on-the-ground work to win.
TIME: Some Democrats Believe This Might Be An Abortion Election After All. Quotes Indivisible group leader Carolyn Eberly from Mecklenburg County, North Carolina talking about all the GOTV work they’re doing.
Normally I end the brag section with a request for some money. And, yes, in any of the scenarios discussed above, we’ll need a grassroots movement fueled by grassroots dollars to help us weather the next storm — and if that moves you, you should support it here. But if you’re looking to do something to impact the next 48 hours, money isn’t going to do that. Contacting voters will — so rather than money, I’m going to ask you to share this newsletter with one person in a battleground state or district, and ask them to talk to 10 of their neighbors before tomorrow night.
The Discussion: Two live chats coming up, starting tomorrow
We’ve held a lot of coffee chats over the last year — these are unrecorded, real talk conversations between Leah, myself, and movement members who choose to drop by. Given everything happening this week, we want to go a little bit further to ensure we’re staying in close touch with Indivisible members across the country. So with that goal in mind, we have two pre-planned national calls I want to get on your calendar:
- Pre-Election Chat tomorrow (11/4) at 3pm ET/12pm PT. Pre-election coffee chat with Leah, myself, and Indivisible’s managing director Mari Urbina. We’ll brief you on how we’re planning to consume news on election night, and how we’re thinking about the contested election scenario. Like previous coffee chats, we’ll spend most of the time in live conversation, answering questions from you. We’d love to have you and your friends join — register here and feel free to submit questions as well.
- Post-Election Touch Base this Wednesday (11/6) at 8:30pm ET/5:30pm PT. Maybe we’ll know the full results by then, but just as likely we’ll still be waiting. Again, I’ll be joined by Leah and Mari for this one, and we’ll use this time to give an update on where we are, what we expect to come next, and what — if anything — we need to do to avert MAGA-fueled sabotage efforts.
As I said at the top, I believe we’ll win, but I don’t know how this week will go. What I do know is that this movement is the most impactful pro-democracy movement in modern American history. We saved the Affordable Care Act in 2017. We built the largest margins in the history of the republic in 2018. We pushed Dem leadership to impeach the bastard in 2019. We made him the first one-term president in a generation in 2020. We won two “impossible” Senate runoffs in Georgia in 2021. We turned an “inevitable” red wave into a trickle in 2022. We beat MAGA in Kentucky, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Ohio in 2023.
And while I don’t know if this trend will continue in 2024, I do know that in any scenario I want an active nationwide movement of pro-democracy Americans organizing in their own communities to make sure we keep this democracy of ours going.
