Indivisible February 2020 Survey Results
We are right in the thick of the Democratic presidential primary process, and the field has narrowed from more than twenty candidates down to eight. Grassroots organizers and activists are the fuel that powers national campaigns, so we surveyed Indivisibles nationwide to understand how members of the movement are approaching the race at this point.
To be fully transparent, we do a LOT of member listening within the movement. This is integral to keeping up with the ever-changing landscape of the presidential primary and how candidates are aligning with the values of our group leaders and members. We also love sharing the results of these kinds of listening tours.
While this is usually pretty exclusiveto our movement, we’re really excited to begin sharing these findings more broadly, because we know Indivisibles will be a major force in building wins for Democrats up and down the ballot in November.
REALLY QUICKLY: OUR METHODOLOGY
We heard from over 16,000 respondents from all 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia. The survey ran from February 12 to February 20. Because of the timing, it does not reflect the impact of the Democratic debate in Las Vegas, NV, or Charleston, SC. (Look out for more updates post-SC!)
WHICH CANDIDATE IS LEADING IN OUR SURVEY?
The results show that Senator Elizabeth Warren remains the number one choice for president among Indivisibles. We surveyed respondents on who they would make president today if all other factors (the primary and general election contests) were removed. Warren won overwhelmingly, with 39% of Indivisibles selecting her as their ideal president in this field. The next closest candidates were Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar, each with 17% choosing them as their preferred president.
In an eight-person field, 33% of respondents selected Senator Warren as their number one choice for the Democratic nominee for president. No other candidate exceeded 20% in first-choice preference.
This result is consistent with previous months’ surveys that also showed Senator Warren with a strong lead as the first choice for Democratic nominee. Senators Sanders and Klobuchar tied for second place, each with 18% of respondents selecting them as their first choice.
WHO’S ON THE LOSING END
Joe Biden’s support continues to fall among Indivisibles. In December, he was the first choice for 14% of respondents; today that has narrowed to only 6%. This result is reflective of where Biden stands at this point in the primary: after having staked his campaign on a weak “electability” argument, voters are flocking to candidates who are presenting a substantive vision to compete with Trump. This isn’t surprising: the former Vice President has been telling voters, again and again, to support other candidates when confronted with the slightest pushback to his agenda or record.
Our survey also found that Indivisibles are becoming increasingly locked into their choice for the nominee. More than half of respondents indicated that they are unlikely to switch candidate preference between now and their state’s primary, and progressive candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have the most solid bases of support among the field at 80% and 65%, respectively. Sanders especially has built a strong, unified coalition as the foundation for his campaign, ensuring that he will have a steady base of support throughout the primary.
Meanwhile, candidates Amy Klobuchar, Tom Steyer, and Michael Bloomberg had the weakest bases of support.
SO WHAT’S NEXT:
Senator Warren’s performance in this survey is reflective of the work she’s done to build trust and enthusiasm among grassroots communities — it’s also why she remains at the top of our candidate scorecard. It’s also important to note where the commitment and energy is going in this race: to Warren and Sanders.
These progressive candidates are running on a platform that is mobilizing the activists and organizers who will be essential to win the nomination. More importantly, they are building a coalition that will remain committed to their candidacy through the convention and into the fight against Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, it’s worth noting the way Vice President Biden is struggling among progressive/liberal activists that have built the anti-Trump resistance since 2017. His campaign’s disregard for grassroots engagement and priorities (reflected in his score on our scorecard) is damaging his chances at the nomination and the White House.
There you have it. Look out for more results from our movement soon!
