The Kennedy-Curious Voter
By Ezra Levin, Indivisible Co-Founder and Co-Executive Director
It’s biweekly-ish newsletter time, and this time we’re talking about Kennedy. As a reminder, we’re all here for the same reason: We’re defeating Trump and delivering the Congress to the Dems so we can codify reproductive rights and pass democracy reform. That’s where we’re headed together. I use these biweekly-ish newsletters to share what I’m seeing around the country and to engage in a reasonable amount of reflection, celebration, and discussion. Let’s start with a summary:
The News: “Yeah Convicted Felon Trump is a scary fascist, but I don’t like Biden, so I’m considering Kennedy.” Robert Kennedy Jr. is making a particularly chaotic year even more unpredictable. It’s clear he’s unhinged, that he’s bankrolled by Trump funders, and that he takes some number of votes from Biden. The practical question is: So what do we do about it? I’ve got some message-tested advice for ya.
The Brag: Indivisible is kicking off a couple of big campaigns this month to drive public attention away from the horserace and back to the actual real-life stakes of this election. That includes a national mobilization around the anniversary of Convicted Felon Donald Trump overturning Roe, and the launch of our Neighbor2Neighbor voter contact tool nationwide.
The Discussion: Leah and I are loving these informal coffee Q&As with the movement! Let’s do another July 1 — register here. And if you’re game, we’re asking folks to bring one new person along this time. We’re building this pro-democracy movement one person at a time.
The News: How do you solve a problem like the Kennedy-curious voter?
I’ve been waiting a while to write a newsletter on Robert Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy, and given that we’re headed into the first debate this month that may or may not exclude him, the time’s ripe.
Kennedy has been hitting double digits in the polls. His appeal blends a combination of factors — the historic name, his career as an environmental lawyer, his anti-establishment vibe, and a massive streak of paranoia and conspiracy vibes. And, let’s be real: He’s stepping into a vacuum. This is not a high-enthusiasm election. A large swath of voters has tuned out this political rematch. Same old, same old.
Among them are low-information voters who are particularly susceptible to misinformation and disinformation. And they are more likely to get their news from Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok, than CNN, The New York Times, or their local paper.
If you’ve been paying attention already, you know there are a lot of troubling things about RFK Jr. — but here are 4 noteworthy facts if you’re just now tuning in:
- He’s likely a spoiler for Trump.
- His largest donor is Trump’s largest donor.
- One of his own state directors was caught on film explaining that the “Number one priority” is defeating Biden.
- It’s unclear from polls who he steals more votes from, but he’s certainly been more critical of Biden than Convicted Felon Trump.
2. He is a virulent anti-vaxxer and weird conspiracy theorist.
- He argued that “There’s no vaccine that is safe and effective.”
- He’s opposed gun violence prevention reform because he says video games and antidepressants are to blame for mass shootings.
- He’s downplayed the severity of the January 6th insurrection.
3. The actual policy positions he holds are deeply unpopular.
- He criticized US support for Ukraine and compared Netanyahu’s war in Gaza to the US’s righteous involvement in World War II.
- He has flip flopped repeatedly on abortion rights, and his current position as expressed by his billionaire running mate is “he absolutely believes in limits on abortion, and we’ve talked about this.”
4. I’m not sure how to say this…he had brain worms. That’s it — he confessed to having brain worms during his divorce proceedings.
If you’re reading this, you’re probably not the swing voter target audience. Like me, you see a chasm of difference between Convicted Felon Donald Trump and Joe Biden on every single policy issue. Like me, you don’t just understand the stakes — you’re scared of them. You know about MAGA’s Project 2025 — their frighteningly in-depth 900-page plan to concentrate power in Trump’s White House and bulldoze through an extremist right-wing agenda.
Because we’re not swing voters, we shouldn’t slip into thinking that these voters live in the same information universe as us. 81% of independents have never heard of Project 2025. About a third of all voters either blame Joe Biden for overturning Roe (!) or don’t know if Trump or Biden is more to blame.
This fact can make some of us pull our remaining hair out — don’t these people know that Convicted Felon Trump brags about killing Roe and is meeting with a group that calls abortion “child sacrifice!?” But let me encourage you to look at it a slightly different way: These potential voters are not yet thinking about the stakes, and that’s a big opportunity for us. Because we get to bring them the truth, and the truth will bring them to us.
I focus on his positions because we know the winning path in 2024 consists of concentrating peoples’ minds on the stakes. This isn’t a choice between Kennedy, or Biden, or Convicted Felon Donald Trump. It’s a referendum on Trump’s second term promise of anti-democratic extremism, bans on abortion and contraception, and corruption. If voters know and believe that, they’ll join us. As the brilliant Mike Podhorzer wrote this week, “knowing and believing what Trump and MAGA plans to do makes people more likely to vote.”
To bring them that truth, we should follow the data and research.
Indivisible has been working closely with our partners at Third Way and MoveOn who have done some deep research on how to approach Kennedy’s candidacy in key battleground states and with moveable voters. I can’t share all of the research because it’s not public, but I got the green light to share some key takeaways:
- Kennedy’s support is an inch deep. Kennedy “supporters” are more likely to be unsatisfied with their options of Trump and Biden than they are Kennedy enthusiasts.
- Kennedy-curious voters strongly support abortion rights. A super majority of these potential voters oppose the MAGA attacks on reproductive rights.
- We win back these voters with a one-two punch. First, highlight the high stakes of a Trump presidency (e.g. abortion bans!). Second, land punches on Kennedy’s bizarre views and extreme policy positions.
In other words, our best shot at defeating Trump and MAGA in November is to focus public attention on the policy stakes. Say it with me: Convicted Felon Donald Trump bragged about overturning Roe. Kennedy wants national restrictions on abortion rights too and will throw the election to Trump if he can. Joe Biden will enact a national abortion rights bill. Those are the stakes.
So how do we drive that message home? Well, that brings us to The Brag.
The Brag: How Indivisible is driving national attention to the stakes
Think again about those target persuadables we need in our tent. We know they don’t like Trump, but they don’t like Joe Biden or Kamala Harris either. They don’t trust political elites to give them the truth. And they’re not watching CNN or MSNBC or Fox News every night. How do you break through their information bubble?
Answer: We get their neighbors and fellow community members to meet them where they are. Two main ways we’re doing that:
- Driving public attention back to the stakes. This month is the anniversary of Convicted Felon Trump’s Supreme Court overturning Roe. In an effort to drive broad public attention back to the stakes around reproductive rights, Indivisible will be supporting hundreds of public local events designed to get coverage and grab headlines. Interested in participating in your own community? Awesome. Join our kickoff planning call on June 13 at 8pm ET / 5pm PT.
- Getting neighbors to talk to neighbors. There’s nothing more effective at circumventing AI-infected, disinformation-laden social media than having a human being talk to a human being in real life. Even better if those human beings live in the same community. That’s what we’re doing with Neighbor2Neighbor, our groundbreaking, research-backed voter contact program. The program went live in battleground states and districts nationwide on Friday, so if you’re in an eligible area (check here), you can register and start knocking doors TODAY. And if you’re not in an area where the program is active, we have loads of other ways you can get involved.
You’ve read this far, and no good deed goes unpunished. I’m SUPER proud of this work, and I’m also proud to say I need grassroots money to do it. You might remember me writing a “Hey we’re low on fundraising email” in the middle of last month. Well you stepped up, and we hit our goal for May (actually — we beat it by 7%)! This movement is indefatigable. Here’s what I can promise: With just under 5 months to go, I can promise any more grassroots dollars we raise will go directly into defeating Trump and MAGA. Help us get more press coverage of Roe memorial events. Help us get more neighbors talking to neighbors. Help us get these voters on our side.
The Discussion: More live Q&A coming!
The day after now-Convicted Felon Donald Trump got convicted, we had another coffee klatch with you all, and it went great! We saw double the participants from the first one, and we covered issues ranging from the conviction, to pushing Dems on the judiciary Committee, to Israel/Gaza, to messaging and voter contact strategies, and more.
Leah and I are really digging these spaces and getting positive feedback from participants, so let’s keep the good times rolling. Register for the next one and feel free to submit questions (we also answer them live) here — July 1 at 4pm ET / 1pm PT.
Bring a pro-democracy friend. If you made it to the last coffee klatch, you heard we’re trying an experiment for the next one: Bring with you one person who hasn’t joined before. They could be a fellow Indivisible, family member, neighbor, whoever. This should be interesting for them. We’re not selling anything, and there’s no hard ask to get more involved than you want to be — just a space where people wrestling with the nuts and bolts of defending our democracy can discuss, learn, and reenergize together.
Hope to see you and your friend(s) then! Until next time, always remember: Convicted Felon Donald Trump was convicted of 34 felonies by a jury of his peers, and if he wins the presidency he’ll attack reproductive rights and the rule of law nationwide. But we’re not gonna let him.
