Three takeaways and one picture from the debate

By Ezra Levin, Indivisible Co-Founder and Co-Executive Director

Happy special debate edition newsletter!! I’m writing this Tuesday night after watching that phenomenal presidential debate. Standard reminder: We’re here to elect VP Harris and Coach Walz to the White House and deliver them a Democratic congress so we can codify reproductive freedom and pass democracy reform. These newsletters are a chance for me to share some reflections on what I’m seeing, brag about what the Indivisible movement is doing, and get your input. With that, let’s start with a quick summary:

The News: Harris trounced Trump. Folks in this movement should feel proud that they rallied around Harris so quickly. This is a win worth celebrating. It was an excellent introduction of Harris to the broader public, and it gave us a welcome momentum boost days before the first votes are cast in battleground states.

The Brag: Election days are here. Early voting starts in Pennsylvania on Monday, and other battleground states follow suit in the coming few weeks. It’s both a relief and terrifying, because it means we’re running out of time to impact this election. The brag is this: We are knocking our Neighbor2Neighbor voter contact targets out of the park. It’s going so great, we could use some more support to squeeze every last drop of impact out of this voter contact work that we can.

The Discussion: We’ve done a lot of live coffee chats, but it’s been a while since our last survey. I’m collecting input on two questions: first, your take on the debate, and how it’s landing among folks in your own community. And second, your voter contact plans (whether Neighbor2Neighbor or something else). Please let me know your thoughts here!

The News: What’s there to debate?

I’ve got three takeaways and one picture. Let’s start with the picture, because it’s a good summary:

Trump yelling and whining about some nonsensical fascist fever dream, contrasted with Harris’ cool, calm, collected confidence. That’s what I saw. But let me get more specific:

1) VP Harris demolished the bastard. Harris turned in one of the best debate performances in modern history. She gave informed and emotionally resonant answers on just about every topic thrown at her. She attacked Trump more in sadness than in anger, and she repeatedly baited Trump with her own answers, leaving him looking like a diminished, declining, defensive — and defeated — bitter old man.

This is not just my opinion. It’s the opinion of the vast majority of observers — professional politicos, journalists, and everyday voters alike. Republican pollster Frank Luntz concluded that “Harris isn’t just winning. Trump is losing.” Conservative commentator Chris Wallace said it was as devastating for Trump as the June debate was for Biden. And viewers agreed. CNN’s snap poll found that by a 2–1 margin, viewers said Harris won (63–37%). Undecided voters in Pennsylvania broke at about the same rate in a live focus group.

In short, Harris won, and she won big.

2) This movement was right about Harris’ potential. Let’s savor and reflect on this victory. After the last debate, many “smart” politicos raised doubts about Biden dropping out for a key reason: They thought Harris couldn’t do the job. Indivisibles were largely not among the doubters — the vast majority of leaders in this movement were enthusiastic about Harris. It’s why Indivisible was one of the first national organizations to endorse Harris, within hours of Biden dropping — fully 95% of our members supported the endorsement.

Carry that with you. There will always be smarter-than-thou politicos who pat you on the head and tell you that you just don’t get it. But I’d take the judgment of real people organizing real people on the ground over a Washington talking head any day of the week.

3) We won! Does it matter? There’s a rich debate about…debates. Headed into this year’s debates, the conventional wisdom backed by political science research was that general election presidential debates have marginal if any impact. But then Biden dropped out following his June debate performance, and that scrambled the conventional wisdom. Suddenly there was a hint of danger — anything could happen! Let’s put this debate win in historical perspective.

Here are the CNN polls over the last dozen years asking viewers who won the debate:

2024
Debate 2 | Harris 63% — Trump 37%
Debate 1 | Trump 67% — Biden 34%

2020
Debate 2 | Biden 53% — Trump 39%
Debate 1 | Biden 60% — Trump 28%

2016
Debate 3 | 52% Clinton — 39% Trump
Debate 2 | 57% Clinton — 34% Trump
Debate 1 | 62% Clinton — 27% Trump

2012
Debate 2 | 48% Obama — 40% Romney
Debate 1 | 67% Romney — 25% Obama

The story we get from the data is…not clear. Yes, Harris’ performance is among the best we’ve seen. Romney crushed Obama in their first debate…and then went on to lose. Clinton crushed Trump in their first debate…and then went on to lose. Biden crushed Trump in their first debate…and then won.

Without clear data, we’re in the realm of qualitative judgment. So I’ll offer mine:

1. People knew who Trump was already — and they got more of the same. He gave us his same old tired schtick. If you loved Trump before, you still love Trump. If you didn’t, you still don’t.
2. People didn’t really know Harris well, and what they saw was someone new who has command of the issues, who came off like an empathetic human being, and who kicked Trump’s ass. That’s fun, and presidential.
3. Base voters will be jubilant, and that jubilance will have positive knock-on effects down the line — more money, more volunteering, more proselytizing about Harris. Case in point: Taylor Swift announcing her endorsement of Harris immediately following the debate (nearly a month earlier than she endorsed Biden in 2020).

So I think this is a win worth celebrating — it’s not a knock-out blow, but it adds some indeterminate amount of momentum to our side. And it comes at a key time because:

The Brag: We start racking up votes next week (!)

Election days are here. There’s a common misconception that the election is almost two months away. Not so. Pennsylvania will start early voting this coming Monday, September 16th. Georgia and Arizona start a few weeks later. Every battleground state has some form of early voting that kicks off before “Election Day” on November 5th.

On the one hand, that’s great news. Right now, we’re (slightly, but meaningfully) ahead in key battleground state polls. We’re coming off of a good debate. Momentum and Taylor Swift are on our side. Pretty soon we won’t be saying “if the election were held today, we’d win.” And instead we’ll be saying “the election is being held today, and we are winning.”

On the other hand, this remains a terrifyingly close election, and we’re running out of time to have an influence on voters.

So this is where I get to brag about Indivisible’s work.

Neighbor2Neighbor is kicking ass. There’s a statistic that will forever haunt me: We won the 2020 election by just 44,000 votes spread across the 3 states. And that basic reality is what underpins the logic of our Neighbor2Neighbor program — our goal is to drive repeated, meaningful connections between our volunteers and 250,000 of their neighbors we most critically need to get out to vote. I’m proselytizing about this so much because it’s SO DAMN IMPACTFUL. And while I don’t think data can tell us everything (see above), when it tells us something clearly, I listen.

Here’s the brag: We’re blowing our targets out of the water. We’ve assigned more than 120,000 doors to volunteers in every battleground state and 18 target districts. We’re way ahead of pace to hit our goal number of conversations with these key swing voters.

I want us to lean into the momentum. I want to squeeze every last drop of GOTV that we can out of this program. But it takes time and, yes, money to increase our impact. We’re running out of time, and we need more money.

Grassroots volunteers supported with grassroots dollars = a Democratic trifecta. So if you’re looking for an efficient investment in a movement that is running to win now, and that is building to fight for reproductive freedom and democracy afterwards, invest in what Indivisible is doing.

I can commit to you this: we’ll make good use of your dollars to elect a Democratic trifecta that can get shit done. I can commit that to you now, because it’s the same commitment I made at this time in 2020.

The Discussion: I want your takes and your plans

Many thanks everyone for coming out to the last coffee chat! We’ll send an invite to another soon, but for this week, I’d like to get your input in writing. I’ve got two specific questions for you (you can respond here):

1. Debate takes. How did you feel about the debate? Did Harris win? Do you think it matters to folks in your own community? To undecided voters in your own community? To base voters in your own community? I’m not asking you to be a political commentator — I’m most interested in what you are actually seeing among folks who live where you live.
2. Voter contact plans. Tell me how you’re doing voter contact this cycle. If you’re in one of the 22 states that offers it, I’d love to hear why you are or are not using Neighbor2Neighbor. Tell me how it’s going or how it’s not going. For those outside those states and districts — tell me what your plans are for voter contact. Phonebanking? Textbanking? Postcarding? Which campaigns or groups are you working with, what’s your plan over the coming weeks, what are you excited about accomplishing with this work?

Those are big questions, I know. If you take time to write something to me, I’ll take time to read it. Yes, I get a kick out of hearing from all over the country, but more importantly this input helps guide our strategic and tactical program work. I share responses with our team and we discuss how to adjust based on what we’re hearing. So please share your thoughts!